Shorter holiday season won’t dampen ecommerce sales with revenue expected to surpass $143 billion

With a head start on this year’s shorter-than-usual holiday season, ecommerce sales should remain robust, according to Adobe’s predictions. The company expects online holiday revenue to reach $143.8 billion this year, a 14.1% increase over last year.

That growth estimate is below the 16.5% year-over-year increase in ecommerce sales that Adobe reported last year, when the shopping season was as long as possible.

“Holiday 2019 is the shortest possible, with only 22 days between Cyber Monday and Christmas,” reports Adobe, “This leaves almost $1 billion in revenue behind. However, retailers are able to make that up by starting sales earlier this year. Thanksgiving will grow at 20%.”

Adobe says that every day during November and December will see more than $1 billion in online holiday sales. The report is based on aggregate data from more than one trillion visits to U.S.-based retail websites.

What to expect Cyber Week. The 20% lift in ecommerce sales expected on Thanksgiving will account for $7 million more than was generated last Thanksgiving. Adobe also expects Cyber Monday to see record-breaking sales this year, climbing to $9.4 billion for the day — an 18.9% increase over last year.

This year’s Cyber Week — Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday — will prove its worth as the biggest online shopping week of the year with sales projected to reach nearly $30 billion ($28.9), accounting for 20% of the holiday season’s total online sales.

Mobile shopping is growing with help from social. Adobe expects mobile shopping to account for nearly 50% of the overall retail holiday growth in the U.S.: “Americans will spend $14 billion more this holiday season on their phone compared to last year.”

Christmas Day sales will also see more purchases happening on phones than on desktops — the first time ever mobile devices will own more sales than desktops for the day.

Social isn’t translating to sales the same way email and search are, according to Adobe, but it is driving more ecommerce visits. Adobe says the share of smartphone visits on ecommerce sites stemming from social has more than tripled during the last three years.

Why we should care. This year’s shortened holiday season (there are six fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas) means marketers will likely need to start their campaigns earlier than usual to reach their holiday goals. Fortunately, according to Adobe’s predictions, the shortened holiday isn’t going to have much impact on how much revenue is up for grabs.

To compete with the big retailers who have already started their online holiday deals — places like Walmart and Best Buy — marketers will need to keep in mind the holiday calendar, and the anticipated heavy shopping days, when implementing their holiday campaigns.